Say Hello to Termination Shock
Say Hello to Termination Shock
July 2, 2024 edition.
Are We Already Living Through Termination Shock?
Look up into the sky. Do you see that? Up there?
Yup. That’s termination shock in action. At least according to legendary climate scientist James Hansen.
Regular readers of Plan B Post already know that humanity did a good thing this century by reducing sulfur emissions from ships.
But sulfur particles don’t just muck up your lungs and cause acid rain. They also reflect sunlight back into space, keeping the earth cool. So, the cleaner air also means a hotter earth.
Hansen writes the reduction in reflectivity (aka “albedo”) due to fewer sulfur emissions is comparable to a sudden increase in CO2 levels by over 100 parts per million. And unless something dramatic is done, he believes we’ll blow past the 1.5ºC threshold this year. In 2024.
And then we will go on to blast through the 2°C barrier by 2050.
“The change since 2015, especially the increase of absorbed solar radiation [due to lower sulfur emissions], is a BFD (a big deal).”
— James Hansen
The result, of course, will be devastating to life on this little blue marble we call Earth.
Hansen calls for fast action and has previously supported geoengineering.
If you didn’t already know that hyper-partisan, post-truth media organizations like News Corp. were bad for the political culture. Here’s more evidence.
A new study found that discussing geoengineering in a politicized way made people less likely to support reduced support for research. It made them less trusting of science and technology in general.
Since You Brought It Up…
And speaking of hyper-partisan media, have you heard of the social media platform, X?
The BBC just found that conspiracy-minded mentions of #GeoEngineering on X more than doubled worldwide in the first half of the year, compared with the last six months of 2023. Since Elon Musk bought it, the platform has seen a surge in spam and conspiracy bots. Musk says he has plans to deal with its bot problem by charging a fee for new accounts, but hasn’t implemented them yet.
Is Geoengineering Really Worse than Climate Change?
People who object to solar geoengineering often refer to the worthy concepts of inclusion and equity. They are right that all voices should be heard.
And, yes, geoengineering could cause some problems in some places, such as changes in rainfall or temperature. Yet, I have never seen these negative impacts measured against what might be the much greater destruction being caused by climate change.
If you have done the math, please let me know at dave@planbpost.com.
VC Emissions Investments Plunge in Q1
The venture capital deal value for Q1 2024 was $2.7 billion, marking the lowest quarterly value since Q1 2021. That’s a stark difference in tone from 2023, which saw a record $17.7 billion in investments. You can expect the pact to pick up somewhat in the remainder of the year, because numbers are usually lower in Q1.
“Instant” Cooling via SAI Would Take Time
You’ve heard of the “overnight success” that was years in the making. Well, cooling the earth via stratospheric aerosol injection is a bit like that.
Many have the idea that we could quickly deploy a "global sunscreen" in response to a climate emergency. And it’s true that stratospheric aerosols can cool the Earth rapidly once deployed.
But to do it at scale would require aircraft and infrastructure that are not readily available. This public letter by Wake Smith estimates preparations could take 20 years.
Focus Groups in 22 Countries Embrace Solar Geoengineering
Researchers found that focus group participants from the global South have more hope for solar geoengineering but also worried more about inequities and geopolitical conflict. Read the whole thing. It’s interesting.
AI Is Not so Bad for the Climate After All
Bill Gates poured cold water on fears that an AI-driven bonanza in data centre energy use would push climate emissions dangerously high.
A query run through the AI chatbot tool ChatGPT needs nearly 10 times as much electricity to process as a Google search. And, carbon emissions from datacentres may more than double by 2030, from 2022 levels.
But AI will also enable us to improve our technology more rapidly. Gates said AI will lead to a net benefit.
“Let’s not go overboard on this. Datacentres are, in the most extreme case, a 6% addition [in energy demand] but probably only 2% to 2.5%. The question is, will AI accelerate a more than 6% reduction? And the answer is: certainly.”
— Bill Gates
That’s it for this week. Thanks for reading and keep up your good work.